What Are the Odds of a Random Lucky Trade in Pokémon GO?
The base chance of a random trade resulting in a Lucky Pokémon in Pokémon GO is 5%. However, this isn’t a fixed rate. The likelihood of a trade becoming lucky increases based on the age of the Pokémon being traded. For each year a Pokémon has been in a Trainer’s collection, the lucky rate goes up by approximately 5%. This means that an older Pokémon significantly boosts your chances of a lucky trade. However, the bonus is capped; the maximum lucky trade chance is 20%. So, while you might think a really old Pokémon would guarantee a lucky trade, it’s still not a certainty, and the rate will not exceed 20%.
Understanding Lucky Pokémon and Trading Mechanics
To fully understand the odds, it’s crucial to grasp what constitutes a Lucky Pokémon and how trading works within the game.
What is a Lucky Pokémon?
A Lucky Pokémon is a special variant that boasts several key benefits:
- Reduced Stardust Cost: They require half the usual Stardust to power up, making them an economical option for competitive teams.
- Guaranteed High IVs: Lucky Pokémon always have a minimum IV floor of 12 for each stat (Attack, Defense, and HP). This guarantees a minimum of 80% IVs.
- Unique Visual Effect: They have a distinctive shimmering effect on their summary page and in the Pokédex, making them easily identifiable.
How Does Trading Work?
Trading in Pokémon GO requires being physically near another trainer. Here are some trading limitations to keep in mind:
- Distance: Trainers must be within close proximity to trade.
- Friendship Level: You must be at least “Good Friends” with the person you’re trading with.
- Daily Limit: There is a daily limit of 100 trades per account.
- Special Trades: Trading for certain Pokémon, like Shiny Pokémon or Legendaries, counts as a special trade, and you are limited to one special trade per day. Lucky trades are not considered special trades, unless they involve a special Pokemon.
The Age-Based Lucky Rate Increase
As mentioned, the age of the Pokémon you’re trading plays a crucial role in determining the lucky trade probability. Here’s a closer look:
- Base Rate: The starting chance is 5% when trading Pokémon with a recent catch date.
- Annual Increase: Each year a Pokémon has been stored increases the lucky rate by 5% (approximately).
- Maximum Cap: The lucky rate increase is capped at a total of 20%. So, a Pokemon older than 3 years would still have the maximum rate of 20%.
For example, trading a Pokémon that’s one year old has roughly a 10% chance of becoming lucky. A two-year-old Pokémon might increase the odds to around 15%, and any Pokemon that are at least three years old would provide the maximum rate of 20%.
Maximizing Your Chances of Lucky Trades
While the age of the traded Pokémon is significant, here are some strategies to maximize your chances:
- Save Older Pokémon: Hold onto older Pokémon specifically for trading purposes.
- Regular Trading: Trading regularly increases your opportunity to obtain Lucky Pokémon. Even though each trade might have a low chance, the sheer volume of trading can help.
- Trade with Multiple Accounts: Some players use multiple accounts to trade between themselves, which may boost their chances of obtaining a lucky pokemon.
- Lucky Friends: Aim to reach Best Friends status with trainers. Upon reaching this level, there’s a chance you’ll become Lucky Friends, guaranteeing that your next trade with that friend will be a Lucky Trade.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) About Lucky Trades
1. What is the guaranteed way to get a Lucky Trade?
The only guaranteed method is to become Lucky Friends with another trainer. This happens randomly after reaching the Best Friends level.
2. Are Lucky Pokémon always 3 stars?
No, Lucky Pokémon are not always 3 stars. They have a minimum IV floor of 12/12/12 (80% IV), putting them at the high end of 2 stars. However, any Lucky Pokémon with 13/12/12 or higher will be considered a 3-star.
3. What are the odds of getting a hundo (100% IV) from a Lucky Trade?
The odds of obtaining a hundo from a lucky trade are approximately 1.56%. This is because the IV floor of 12 for each stat means there are only 64 possible IV combinations.
4. How many trades can I do per day?
You are limited to 100 trades per day per account.
5. Can a Shiny Pokémon be Lucky?
Yes, absolutely! A Shiny Pokémon can become a Lucky Pokémon during a trade. This makes it even more valuable and sought after.
6. Are Lucky Trades cheaper?
Yes, Lucky Pokémon cost half the amount of Stardust to power up, making them exceptionally beneficial for players who want strong Pokémon without excessive resource expenditure.
7. Is it worth keeping 0-star Pokémon?
If you don’t have another Pokemon of the same species, it may be worth holding onto a 0-star Pokemon until you find a better one. It’s also worth keeping a zero-star Shiny Pokemon.
8. Should I Purify a 0-star Shadow Pokémon?
If the Shadow Pokémon has good Attacks and CP, it’s better to leave it unpurified. Purifying will remove the Shadow Bonus effect. Sometimes, however, it may raise its IVs, though this isn’t always the case.
9. Which Pokémon are the best to aim for in Lucky Trades?
Some of the most desirable Pokémon for Lucky Trades include Mewtwo, Metagross, Rayquaza, Togekiss, Giratina, Garchomp, Kyogre, and Lucario, but ultimately, the best Pokemon to trade for is the one that you need the most.
10. Can you have two Lucky Trades in a single day?
Yes, you can have as many Lucky Trades as you have Lucky Friends on a single day. However, you can only have one special trade per day, so if any of your lucky trades involve special Pokemon, you would be limited to one per day.
11. Does CP matter more than IV in Pokémon GO?
In general, a Pokémon with a higher CP is often preferred, even with lower IVs. However, Lucky Pokemon will still be easier to power up even with higher CP due to the reduced cost, and have a higher IV floor than non-lucky Pokemon.
12. Should I only evolve 3-star Pokémon?
If a 0-star Pokémon has a high CP, it might be worth evolving. However, if you have a 3-star Pokémon with comparable or lower CP, it’s generally better to evolve the 3-star due to the better potential growth.
13. What are the rarest star Pokémon?
The star system doesn’t correlate directly to rarity of the Pokémon itself, although it could be a rare find if you got a hundo shiny out of any particular Pokemon. However, within the Pokémon Trading Card Game, certain cards such as a Charizard V (Alternate Art) from the Brilliant Stars set, are highly sought after.
14. Should I evolve a 2-star Pokémon?
Pokémon obtained from eggs or research often have 2/3-star appraisals. Always evolve the one with higher CP or the better appraisal between the two.
15. How rare is a perfect Shiny Pokemon?
The base shiny rate for most Pokemon is approximately 1 in 512, and the odds of the Pokemon hatching with perfect IVs is 1 in 216, which means the combined odds of getting a perfect shiny Pokemon is 1/110,592.
By understanding these mechanics, you can maximize your chances of obtaining Lucky Pokémon and make strategic decisions about when and how to trade.