What Are the Odds of Rolling a Crit? A Comprehensive Guide

The thrill of a critical hit, or “crit,” is a core element of many games, especially role-playing games like Dungeons & Dragons (D&D). But just how likely is it to roll that coveted critical success? The answer, as with many things, depends on the specifics. Let’s dive into the probabilities, variations, and factors that influence your chances of scoring a crit.

The Base Probability: A 5% Chance

In most games utilizing a 20-sided die (d20), the standard chance of rolling a critical hit is 1 in 20, or 5%. This occurs when you roll a natural 20 on your attack roll. This “natural” aspect is crucial; modifiers to your roll after the fact do not make it a critical. It’s that pure, untainted 20 that triggers the special effect, often doubling your damage.

Deviations from the 5% Standard

While 5% is the baseline, there are many ways this probability can change:

• Class Features: Certain character classes or subclasses in D&D, such as the Fighter Champion, can expand their crit range. For example, a 3rd level Champion fighter crits on a 19 or 20, doubling the crit chance to 2 in 20, or 10%. At level 15, they crit on 18, 19, or 20, tripling the chance to 15%.

• Advantage: When you have advantage on a roll, you roll twice and take the higher result. While this doesn’t guarantee a crit, it significantly increases the likelihood. With advantage, your chance of rolling a 19 or 20, and thus getting a crit, is approximately 19%. This is considerably higher than the standard 5% or even the Fighter Champion’s 10% at lower levels.

• Other Mechanics: Specific items, spells, or abilities can also influence your crit chance or the effect of a critical hit, adding layers of complexity to the game.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) About Crit Chances

1. What are the exact odds of rolling a natural 20?

The odds of rolling a natural 20 on a standard d20 are always 1 in 20, or 5%. Each number on a fair d20 has an equal probability of being rolled.

2. What is the probability of getting a crit with advantage?

With advantage, you roll two d20s and take the higher result. The chance of getting at least one 20 is 9.75%, and the chance of getting at least one 19 or 20 is approximately 19%.

3. How do Fighter Champions increase their crit chances?

The Champion subclass for the Fighter class in D&D expands their critical range. At level 3, they crit on a 19 or 20 (10% chance), and at level 15, they crit on 18, 19, or 20 (15% chance).

4. What happens on a critical hit?

Typically, a critical hit doubles the damage dice you roll. Instead of rolling one d8 for a longsword, you’d roll two. Non-dice bonuses to damage are generally not doubled. However, some games or houserules may also include doubling all damage including non-dice bonuses.

5. Does a natural 20 always guarantee a hit?

Yes, in most cases, a natural 20 is an automatic hit and a critical hit. This applies even if your total modified roll would otherwise be insufficient to hit.

6. Can you roll a crit on a skill check?

Critical hits are typically specific to attack rolls. Most games do not use criticals for skill checks, though some house rules may vary. Usually, a natural 20 is still a success for skill checks, even if the total roll would be insufficient, but it does not have any other “crit” benefits.

7. Does Adamantine armor negate critical hits?

Adamantine armor often negates the extra damage from a critical hit but does not stop the hit from being a critical in the first place. So, you still successfully hit, but only do normal damage.

8. What are the odds of rolling two natural 20s in a row?

The odds of rolling a natural 20 are 1 in 20 (5%). To calculate the odds of rolling two in a row, we multiply the probabilities: (1/20) * (1/20) = 1/400. So, the odds of rolling two natural 20s in a row are 1 in 400, or 0.25%.

9. What are the odds of rolling three natural 1s in a row?

The probability of rolling a 1 on a d20 is 1/20. The probability of doing it three times in a row is (1/20) * (1/20) * (1/20) which is equal to 1/8000, or 0.0125%. Rolling a 1 is a critical failure in most systems.

10. What is the expected number of rolls for a crit?

The average number of rolls it takes to get a critical hit with a 5% chance is approximately 20 rolls. This is a statistical average; you could get lucky and roll one sooner or be unlucky and roll many more before one occurs.

11. Do some Pokémon moves always crit?

Yes, some Pokémon moves are designed to always land a critical hit. In some cases, these moves ignore defensive boosts but do not necessarily do more damage than any other move. Moves such as Frost Breath and Circle Throw are examples.

12. How does crit rate work in Pokémon?

The base chance for a critical hit in Pokémon is around 4% or 1 in 25, significantly lower than a d20-based RPG. Certain moves, abilities, and items can increase this rate, and some moves, as mentioned above, guarantee it.

13. Can you fail a critical capture in Pokémon?

Yes. A critical capture in Pokémon does not guarantee a successful capture, it simply increases the likelihood of catching the Pokémon. The chances of capture are still determined by the catch rate and health of the wild Pokémon.

14. Does 100% crit rate mean every hit is a crit?

Yes, if a game mechanic indicates a 100% crit rate, that means that every hit will be a critical hit. There is no chance of rolling or hitting normally. This is a guaranteed critical hit.

15. How can you guarantee a crit in D&D?

The most common way to guarantee a critical hit in D&D is to exploit conditions such as Paralyzed or Unconscious. Attacks against these targets will always be critical hits. Additionally, spells or abilities can sometimes cause a critical hit on a successful attack.

Conclusion

Critical hits add an element of excitement and unpredictability to games. Understanding the odds, whether you’re rolling a d20 or playing Pokémon, helps you appreciate the rarity and power of a well-timed crit. While a 5% chance of a natural 20 might seem small, it’s that very unpredictability that keeps us on the edge of our seats, hoping for the next big score. With variations like advantage, special abilities, and critical moves, the chance for a critical hit is far from static, adding depth and intrigue to gameplay. Now, go forth, roll those dice, and may the odds be ever in your favor!