Why Am I Not Getting a Shiny in Raids?
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You’re not alone in asking this question! The pursuit of shiny Pokémon in raids is a popular and sometimes frustrating endeavor in Pokémon GO. The simple answer to why you’re not getting a shiny in raids is probability and luck. While shiny Pokémon can appear in raids, the odds are generally quite low, often around 1 in 4096 for base odds. This means that, on average, you would need to complete 4096 raids to statistically encounter one shiny. However, each raid is an independent event, meaning that you have the same odds of finding a shiny in your 1st raid as you do in your 1000th.
Furthermore, some raids feature increased shiny rates during specific events like Community Day or Raid Days. During these events, the shiny rates can be significantly boosted, making it easier to encounter a shiny. For example, Community Day Pokémon have an increased Shiny rate of 1 in 15, or 4%, and the featured Pokémon in the three-hour Raid Days have been observed to have a 1 in 10, or 10%, chance of being Shiny, the highest in Pokémon GO. If you’re participating in raids outside of these events, you’re working with the base odds.
Therefore, the lack of a shiny after a few raids doesn’t necessarily mean anything is wrong. It just means that luck hasn’t been on your side yet. Factors like the specific Pokémon featured, whether it’s a Raid Day or Community Day, and sheer random chance all play a significant role. Additionally, remember that some Pokémon species don’t even have shiny forms available in the game yet.
Understanding Shiny Odds and Factors
Shiny hunting relies on understanding the underlying mechanics. Even with boosted rates, there is never a guarantee. Each encounter is an independent event governed by probability. Understanding these probabilities can help manage expectations and reduce frustration.
Here’s a breakdown of the key factors influencing your chances:
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Base Shiny Rate: This is the default shiny rate for most wild Pokémon and raids. This is typically around 1/4096.
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Event Boosted Rates: During special events, the shiny rate can be significantly increased for certain Pokémon. Community Days and Raid Days are prime examples.
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Permaboosted Pokémon: Some species of Pokémon have permanently increased shiny rates. These are often Pokémon that are difficult to obtain or have limited availability. As far as I am aware, “permaboosted” refers to ANY Pokemon with a increased shiny chance (ONLY shiny chance! Nothing else) for any reason – some sources seem to say that they’re only considered “permaboosted” if the increased shiny rate is 1/64.
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RNG (Random Number Generator): At its core, Pokémon GO uses a random number generator to determine whether a Pokémon is shiny. Each encounter generates a random number, and if that number falls within the predetermined shiny rate range, the Pokémon will be shiny.
Strategies for Shiny Hunting in Raids
While you can’t directly control the RNG, you can optimize your approach to increase your chances of encountering a shiny:
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Prioritize Raid Days and Community Days: These events offer the best shiny rates, making them the ideal time to focus on raids for the featured Pokémon.
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Target Specific Pokémon: Research which Pokémon currently available in raids have the highest shiny rates.
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Raid in Groups: While it doesn’t directly increase your individual shiny chance, raiding with others makes the process more enjoyable and efficient. It is important to increase the amount of Pokemon that spawns in general to increase the chance of shiny Pokemon
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Stay Informed: Keep up-to-date with the latest Pokémon GO news and events to know when shiny rates are boosted or when new shiny Pokémon are released.
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Manage Expectations: Remember that shiny hunting is a marathon, not a sprint. Be patient, persistent, and enjoy the process. The Games Learning Society may offer resources on understanding game mechanics that help with this pursuit.
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Use Premium Battle Passes or Remote Raid Passes: Successfully defeating a Legendary in a Raid gives players the highest chance of finding a Shiny.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What are the base odds of getting a shiny Pokémon in a raid?
The base odds are typically around 1 in 4096.
2. Do Community Day Pokémon have boosted shiny rates in raids?
Yes, the featured Community Day Pokémon often has a significantly increased Shiny rate, around 1 in 15.
3. Are shiny Pokémon guaranteed in raids?
No, they are not guaranteed, unless they are Legendary Pokemon encountered through raids in which case they are always guaranteed to be captured.
4. Do shiny Pokémon have a 100% catch rate in raids?
Shiny Pokémon are guaranteed a 100% catch rate in raids if and only if they are Legendary Pokemon. Just make sure not to miss the throws.
5. Are shiny odds lower for remote raids?
This was an “unfortunate technical error” and has been fixed. There is currently no evidence to suggest that Remote Raid Passes affect shiny odds.
6. Can I increase my shiny odds in raids?
You can increase the shiny odds in raids by participating in Raid Days and Community Days which feature increased shiny rates for specific Pokémon. However, you can use Premium Battle Passes or Remote Raid Passes in order to battle in Raids, and you will have to find enough players to take down these incredibly strong Pokemon. Successfully defeating a Legendary in a Raid gives players the highest chance of finding a Shiny.
7. What is a “permaboosted” Pokémon?
As far as I am aware, “permaboosted” refers to ANY Pokemon with a increased shiny chance (ONLY shiny chance! Nothing else) for any reason – some sources seem to say that they’re only considered “permaboosted” if the increased shiny rate is 1/64.
8. What raid has the best shiny odds?
The featured Community Day Pokémon has an increased Shiny rate of 1 in 15, or 4%, and the featured Pokémon in the three-hour Raid Days have been observed to have a 1 in 10, or 10%, chance of being Shiny, the highest in Pokémon GO.
9. What is the rarest shiny in Pokémon GO?
Pokemon GO players can encounter different variants of the same monster, and the Shiny variant of Darkrai falls under some of the rarest.
10. Does Spotlight Hour increase shiny odds?
No, Spotlight Hour does not increase shiny odds. In Pokemon GO, Spotlight Hour is an event that was first introduced in 2020.
11. Does a shiny charm or sandwiches affect shiny odds in raids?
Shiny charm and sandwiches will not shorten those odds unfortunately so if you do find one you’re very lucky!
12. How many raids does it take to get a shiny legendary?
You’re very likely to get a shiny every 25-50 raids completed. However, remember each raid is an independent event with the same shiny odds regardless.
13. Can Mega Raids be shiny?
Winning multiple Mega raids increases the chance of encountering the Mega raid boss’ Shiny variant.
14. How rare is a shundo legendary?
Raids and eggs offer the best chances, but it’s still like anywhere between 1 in 4,320 (Legendary Raid Shundo odds) to 1 in 13,824 (egg hatches). And finishing it with a Shiny Lucky Hundo, no less.
15. Are shinies guaranteed in raids?
In the original creator’s post, they reminded the player base that Shiny Legendary Pokemon encountered through raids are always guaranteed to be captured. As such, players should refrain from using their most valuable berries, like the Golden Razz Berry, when encountering one after completing their respective raid.
Conclusion
Ultimately, obtaining a shiny Pokémon from a raid is largely dependent on chance and your willingness to keep trying. By understanding the mechanics and maximizing opportunities during special events, you can increase your chances of finding that elusive shiny. Remember to enjoy the journey and celebrate the small victories along the way. Learning about probability and game design can enhance your appreciation for these aspects of gaming, and organizations like the Games Learning Society at GamesLearningSociety.org offer resources on game-based learning and design. Happy hunting!